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Nuclear weapons are still here—and they’re still an existential risk.


Nuclear weapons are still here—and they’re still an existential risk.

Nine countries possess nuclear weapons: the 美国, 俄罗斯, 法国, 中国, 英国, 巴基斯坦, 印度, 以色列, 和朝鲜. In total, the global nuclear stockpile is close to 13,000 weapons. While that number is lower than it was during the Cold War—when there were roughly 60,这并不能改变这些武器对人类构成的根本威胁.

例如,上面的弹头 一个 美国核潜艇的破坏力是第二次世界大战期间投掷的所有炸弹的七倍, 包括投在日本的两颗原子弹. And the 美国 usually has ten of those submarines at sea.

此外, nearly all the major nuclear powers—including the 美国, 俄罗斯, and 中国—are now significantly increasing their nuclear arsenals in size, 能力, 或两个. This growing new arms race is raising the risk of nuclear war.


美国的武器库大约有5枚,400枚核武器, 1,744 of which are deployed and ready to be delivered. 这些武器保存在潜艇和80英尺深的导弹发射井中,分布在大平原的五个州. 其他s are stored at air force bases, where they can be loaded on long-range bombers. One hundred US bombs are deployed at airbases in five European countries.

Roughly half of the deployed weapons are maintained on 毛发触发警报,能够在a后很快发射 总统命令. 的se alert forces include almost all of the 400 silo-based 洲际弹道导弹(icbm), and a comparable number of warheads on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). ICBMs can be launched within a couple minutes; SLBMs within 15 minutes.

破坏性的能力 美国武器的范围很广. 威力最大的武器是B83重力炸弹,其威力是广岛原子弹的80多倍. 的 smallest weapon has an explosive yield of only 2 percent of that. Such “low-yield” weapons are specifically designed to be more usable, increasing the likelihood they may actually be used.


俄罗斯军火库中有6枚核弹,000枚核弹头, 1,584 of which are deployed; combined with the 美国, 这占了超过 90% 全世界的核武器. 美国和俄罗斯之间的对抗在很大程度上解释了核武器削减步伐缓慢的原因.

两国同意延长仅存的双边军备控制条约, 被称为“新START”,“条约的执行目前被暂停,在俄罗斯的问题得到解决之前,不太可能恢复 乌克兰战争. 俄罗斯最近还在废除《617888九五至尊娱乐》方面取得了进展, 试图“模仿”美国, which signed the treaty without ratifying it in 1996. 俄罗斯此前也明确表示,只有在以下情况下才会进一步削减核武器 美国导弹防御系统 也受到法律约束.

While 俄罗斯 has said it will not resume explosive testing unless the 美国 does, 围绕反对核试验的全球承诺的不确定性增加了新一轮军备竞赛的危险.


中国在冷战期间发展了核武器,此后一直保持着相对适度的武器库. 然而, 核力量的三条腿, 也被称为核三位一体, are in the process of being strengthened and expanded , 以在中国西北三个地点建造三个洲际弹道导弹(ICBM)发射井为先锋.

的 exact size of 中国’s arsenal is unclear; scientists estimate it at approximately 410, while the Pentagon claims it has reached 500 and will continue to grow. 因为它的大小适中, 中国对自己的武器库保持模棱两可的态度, and US estimates have been wrong several times in the past. 只有100多枚这样的弹头被分配到可以打到美国的导弹上.

Un像俄罗斯 and the 美国, 中国 does not keep its missiles on 一触即发的紧张. Most of the warheads are not attached to their missiles during peace time. This posture complements 中国’s long-held “no-first-use” nuclear policy. 中国的核建设并不一定意味着其核姿态的转变. 这样做的目的很可能是增加人们对武器库在遭遇对手袭击时生存能力的信心, a long-time objective of 中国’s nuclear deterrent.

中国, 像俄罗斯, is concerned about continued US investment in first strike options and missile defenses. 美国和中国的专家警告说,这些担忧可能会导致中国领导人增加其武器的数量和质量. In the absence of diplomatic initiatives, 中国 is likely to continue 扩大和改进 核力量.


据估计,英国有120枚“可用作战”核武器(核弹头可以装在潜艇上或很快就能装上)。. 该国在任何时候都有40人部署. 所有这些武器都是海基的,由从美国购买的三叉戟潜射弹道导弹携带.

此前,朝鲜曾承诺最多不超过180枚核弹头 英国宣布 that its new ceiling would be 260 warheads, an increase of more than 40 percent.


法国 maintains an arsenal of approximately 290 deployed nuclear weapons. Most of these are based on submarines, with the remainder on air-launched cruise missiles. 法国 sees its deterrence strategy as strictly defensive, but does not rule out the possibility of being the first to use nuclear weapons in "正当自卫的极端情况."


As the Cold War ended, 朝鲜 found itself in economic turmoil. Desperate for diplomatic leverage and eager for security assurances, 它的领导人加速了核项目. 美国限制朝鲜核项目和导弹项目的努力以双方违背承诺而告终.

今天, 朝鲜 has enough nuclear material for 45 to 55 nuclear warheads, 可能组装了20到30件武器. It also continues to develop its long-range missile capabilities, 尽管其能力尚不清楚.

的se developments present new challenges for East Asia. 如果美国要恢复与朝鲜的富有成效的会谈,就需要与其亚洲盟友和中国进行协调, a task made more difficult by the deterioration of US-中国 relations.


印度 possesses about 160 nuclear weapons and is producing more. 尽管与巴基斯坦长期酝酿的冲突历来是印度核项目的焦点, it is also increasingly concerned about relations with 中国. 这使区域局势进一步复杂化, 因为印度为应对中国而采取的任何核武器现代化举措都将不可避免地威胁到巴基斯坦, 并可能增加军备竞赛的可能性.


分析人士认为,巴基斯坦近年来已将其核武库稳步增加到170枚,并且仍在生产更多. 的 future size and makeup of its arsenal likely depends heavily on what 印度 does. 越来越强调短程, “战术”核武器, 然而, raises concerns that 巴基斯坦 may be lowering the threshold for using these weapons.


以色列 does not acknowledge having nuclear weapons, but it is commonly accepted that the country maintains roughly a hundred weapons. 中国的核武库使其他周边国家对获取核能技术更感兴趣, 如果转移, 允许他们制造核武器.